Thursday, September 10, 2009

Rotation. Thu Sep 10

The local market is up 25 points but it's one of those days where I don't really have any winners, and looking around the market there is a bit of switching going on. For example, Gold's charge at US$1000 has faltered and all the gold stocks are easing back while property stocks are firmer.

I've sold out half of my Sbm at 31 (v 24), half of the Bly at 28 (v 28.5) as they announced that the underwriters are left with a lot of stock from the retail issue and the balance of Mah at 64 (v 61.5) as they make a 60 minute sell signal and have also breached a trailing stop on the daily chart.

I've added to Tpi at 158.5 as it inches up and looks poised to run but is still short of the recent high; breaching that could lead to some rapid acceleration. I've bought back into Asciano at 168.5 as they broke last month's high of 168. I was wondering why I've paid 5% more for this - I was in and out for breakeven last week at 160. The answer I gave myself is that at that point it looked like it could be making a lower high with a couple of days closing lower than the open and no great momentum. The last couple of days have changed that picture and there's a good chance this can kick on, although it has drifted back to 166 along with a general drift back in the overall market.
11.57 Sbm has breached a simple trailing stop on the daily which I generally prefer to use. Yesterday's low was 31 and it's trading at 30 offer. I'll try to sell my balance out at 30.

12.40 I was almost to the front of the queue in St Barbara to sell my balance when the stock was knocked down. It's 29, 29.5 now but I'm staying at 30 for the time being. A similar gamble in Bly went my way as I sold the balance out at 27.5 (v 28.5). There's too much stock around and yesterday's bounce was a false dawn.

2.36 The market has firmed slightly to be up 32. A friend just sent me a chart of Gbg, he's a bit more long term than me, and he's pointing out the significance of this level - 95. Here's a weekly. I'm already in this but I might buy more if it can get through 95. It just got state government environmental approval for its Karara iron ore project. It also needs approval from the federal government and given that the project has support from AnSteel of China it would probably be attractive to the federal government to approve the project speedily as compensation for the Rio knockback.
3.08 Gbg is 96.5 now and I bought another tranche at just under 96.

3.59 Just sold out the balance of Sbm at 30 (v 24).

4.13 A pretty strong day with the Xjo index rising 1.1%. I'm happier with my book now. Long Aio, Ehl, Gbg, Ifn and Tpi. Gbg finished well, closing at 99 and trading as high as 101.

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