Thursday, October 15, 2009

DJ 10K. Thu Oct 15

Up, up and away as the Dow went back up through the 10,000 level last night, and closed above it too, at 10016. Not a complete surprise as the US futures were firm in our time zone yesterday on the back of the strong Intel result which came after market close. Nevertheless, it held those gains and built on them, thanks partly to another strong result in JP Morgan.
It's 11.13 and the Xjo index is up 54 points, hovering around the opening levels. I felt uncomfortable last night with so many positions on, so I've taken advantage of the strong open to have a clear out. Out of Awb at 125.1 (v 125), Esg at 95.6 (v 95), some Lnc at 177.5 (v 176) and Roc at 70.1 (v 66.4). I sold a couple of Aoe at 449 (v 437.5) but I've still got most of that position. Also out of a handful of Mmx at 169 (v 165) but still have most of those too, and they're the standout for me, up 9 at 172.5. Srl has edged past Tuesday's high to 170.5 and look the most likely to kick again on the day.

11.45 Out of the rest of my Lnc at 175 (v 176). Now long Aoe, Mmx and Srl as the market chops back a few points.

12.04 I think I made a mistake in getting out of Esg so I paid 96.5 to buy back. The daily chart shows that it's right on resistance.
The 60 minute chart shows a tight consolidation holding above a mini breakout around 93 which now looks ready to push toward 100. 2.24 The market has eased back and is now up 28 points. It looks like gap filling to me, based on the short term Spi chart, and my positions are hanging in there.

2.46 After twice losing small amounts trying to pre-empt a breakout, I see that Mig has cleared a 20 day trading range and is up at 156.5. So I've bought half of my position at 156.5 and I might buy the rest shortly because it looks like it has completed the first consolidation from this morning's early surge.

I'm interested in Transfield as well and the chart is similar to this but I've plumped for Mig because it looks like it has more upside, both chartwise and in relation to analysts' expectations.

Srl is a concern as the expected surge hasn't arrived today and the way the chart is forming up, it looks like a weaker second leg to the rally - not a good sign. I've sold more at 169 (v 165) with half my position left. The Spi is trying to rally and I'm hanging on for a short while to see if Srl goes with it.Bought the balance of Mig at 157.5 for an average of 157.

3.09 Out of Srl now, selling the last portion at 168.

3.58 Approaching the close the futures are close to their day's lows.

It's a pretty standard sort of pullback day, similar to the 12th. There's a good chance that we've filled the opening gap now so although my positions have edged back, I'm holding for the open tomorrow.

4.14 We've finished with a gain of 28 points. Long Aoe, Esg, Mig and Mmx.

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