Trying AWB again. Mon Oct 19

Almost 45 minutes into the trading day, the index has surprised with a 54 point drop as the market has fallen steadily from a mildly weaker opening. I assume we're close to the low for the day because there doesn't seem to be any obvious weakness in US overnight futures and we had fallen on Friday perhaps pre-empting some profit taking in Northern Hemisphere markets.

My two longs in Mig and Pbg are ok. Mig is close to square and Pbg is one of the better performers, up 4 at 147. I sold a quarter out on the open at 146.5 (v 142.5).

I've added a new position in Awb and this time I'm more comfortable as I have a signal I like. I bought and sold this for square about 3 days ago on a simple reversal but now I've got a reversal followed by a higher low and new high, in the context of a probably completed correction which held above support around 115. So, I'm thinking that we could quickly see new highs in the mid 130s.

11.04 The market had a 15 point bounce but is now coming back towards the lows again, there might be a few points to go yet. I've added another long position in Isoft Group which is a provider of net based software for hospitals. It's getting quite a bit of business with the National Health Service in the UK and seems very well supported. It's not a stock I'm familiar with so I did some reading because although I'm primarily focussed on the chart patterns I still want a context to get a feel for how volatile the stock might be. Analyst opinion is moderately bullish with a headwind being the strengthening AUD because a lot of income is coming from abroad. The company has recently placed some shares at 77 so that could be another short term barrier but so far the stock seems untroubled by any potential overhang. Long at 89.5 with the prospect of buying more if it can hold on to these gains on the day.12.14 The Xjo index is hovering around the lows, down 53 points. I bought more Awb at 126 and sold a few more Pbg at 146.5.

1.55 The market is recovering now but Pacific Brands looks like it is slowing down so out of another quarter of the position at 149.5 (v 142.5).

2.41 Out of the last of the Pbg at 148.5.

3.33 It's nearing the day's end and the Xjo index is still down 0.8% despite a turnaround in the rest of the region after we had led them down at first. There has been a dawning of comprehension about interest rates in Australia and the increased probability of rate rises in the short term so perhaps we're running our own race. I still favour some strength into the close and I've bought a small position in Molopo at 130.5. Here's the daily chart.

4.11 I've been too bullish the last few days and true to that form the market didn't rally into the close although my own positions held steady or improved somewhat. I bought a few more Awb on the match at 128 to take the average to 126.3, while Isf closed at 87.5, Mig unchanged at 153.5 and Mpo towards the top of the range at 130. The index fell 44 points.