Unconvincing. Tue Oct 20

Although we've more than recouped yesterday's fall, there is still a very cautious tone to the Australian market this morning. An hour or so into trading, there's an unwillingness to chase anything up. Gold, oil and precious metals were all firm last night along with European and US indices but so was the AUD and that negates a lot of the positive impact for Australian miners.

I feel like the miners are due a rally though and my first thought this morning was that I had the wrong set of positions - only one resource stock - and sure enough, the only one looking good is the gas producer Molopo.

I sold out of Isf at 87.5 (v 89.5) as it wasn't moving, along with a third of my Awb at 128.5 (v 126) and half of the Mig at 154.5 (v 157).

I bought more Mpo at 132.8 average as the stock made a new high above 132 and I've added a part position in Platinum Australia at 100.5. This stock has had a sharp retracement which held support and broke yesterday's high on the open, so it's a simple resumption trade.There are a number of resource company charts which look quite bullish and I'm watching Minara and Western Areas in particular, along with GWA international in the small industrials area.

For the last ten days Ive been having a go at quite a few stocks and constantly cutting them for small wins or losses. I'm looking at the situation where I can get into a stock which is running hard for two or three days, not at something which is perhaps chopping upwards, so getting that ideal trade is not going to happen everyday. The best mover today is Cgf, up 6.5%, and I've looked at the chart: there's no way I would have been long that. Yesterday, the best mover in the Xjo for most of the day was Pbg, which I was on and although I was hoping for more, I took a fair bit of what was available and was probably right to get out with the stock back down at 143.

12.13 I've been going through the charts again and I'm not sure that there's any particular bias towards one sector or another. I've just gone long Transurban, a toll road operator, at 442 as they resume after a four day congestion. Forecasts are much higher than the stock price and they've just done a pretty good deal with the NSW state government.12.45 The market has firmed to be up 74 points and I'm having one of those days when I'm desperately trying to make up for the fact that I haven't made money despite being long on a big up day. So, I've found about 15 stocks which I'm watching like a hawk in case they start to surge.....exhausting and counterproductive. So far, I've avoided some of the worst pitfalls but really I should accept that the odds are that any money I might make on my current positions will be due to an overnight move. Oh well, bought more Pla at 102.5 to take the average buy price to 101.5.

Roc is charting well again after its pullback. I'll try to wait for the close to get some of these. I'll need to sell something though and Mig might be the one to go.

1.50 Slightly reluctantly, I've also gone long Ipl at 290. There are stories on the news wires about Bhp running the rule over the US fertiliser stock Potash and although Incitec Pivot is a fertiliser (and explosives) company, it doesn't produce potash. Anyway, I bought this a little while ago and it has pushed on to 293.

3.51 I'm disappointed in Molopo, it looks like a failure after a new high. I bought some Roc as they've held most of their gains, long at 68.5.

3.59 Out of Molopo at 130 (v 131.5 ave) as these failures can drop very sharply.

4.03 I've been watching Bsl all day and haven't really had the guts to buy it but I think I should. Here's the daily.

It can be hard to buy these because it looks like you could have got set just above 300 and it's now pushing the July highs, but it's an impressive performance and it doesn't look like a retracement rally because it's far too dynamic.

4.12 The Xjo has finished with a gain of 53 points. I did buy Bsl at 338 and I'm slightly overspent because I missed selling out Mig and some Awb and Tcl in the match when they closed at my level but I was too far back in the queue. I did sell some Pla at 103 (v 101.5).
I've been jittery all day though I can't put my finger on any particular reason. Sometimes I get like this when my positions are wrong and I'm failing to see it but although the Xjo could fail tomorrow and make a lower high, there's no reason to act on that and it's more probable that the trend will hold.