Most of my positions have suffered this morning despite a fairly modest 20 point drop but I feel a strange sense of relief. I think I had way too many positions and it stemmed from trying too hard, an old failing of attempting to make things happen rather than letting them unfold.
I haven't changed too much yet; it's 10.35 am and the market has flirted with the possibility of reversing up already. That's failed and we might make a new low in the short term, but it implies that there's not a huge desire to sell the market down.
I stopped out of Mig at 150 (v 157) and I'm disappointed that I didn't get out of this yesterday since I'd already decided to cut it - I wasn't agressive enough to get out on the match.
The standout bullish trade in the market this morning is in Tse and my bloated set of positions has cost me here. I noticed it last night, after the close, and there was a chance to get in on the open but I was too busy fighting fires elsewhere. Here's the daily.
It's the kind of trade that I'm focussing on because it finished strongly at a new high with a good chance of having completed the correction and therefore pushing through to new highs. It's rather like the Bsl signal which I took (and is down a few cents) but better because it isn't extended.
Tatts Group, a lotteries and gaming company, has a different sort of chart. It has neatly broken out of a tight range and I'm looking for a similar surge to the 4 day move in early September. Long at 252.5 so far.
10.57 Stopped out of Awb at 126 for square.
11.14 Out of Pla at 101 (v 101.5) and long Vba as it resumes at 53.5. There was another broker upgrade this morning on the back of good overseas travel figures, targetting 70, Merrill's I think.
12.28 The market has been clawing back some of the losses, just down 12 now. But so far the rally is unconvincing. Bsl is back to square while Tse is up 29 at 472 having opened at 445.
1.07 Stopped out of Ipl at 284 (v 290) as my jitters yesterday turned out to be warranted. Of my remaining positions - Bsl, Roc, Tcl, Tts and Vba - I'm most confident about Bsl and Vba.
2.29 Stopped out of Tcl at 437 (v 442) so I've had a string of small losses today. Overcoming my reluctance to put on more positions, I've bought a half portion in Resmed.
It's pushing through resistance from a bullish congestion. It has also hedged its USD exposure and is being generally upgraded.
3.46 Out of Bsl at 337 (v 338) and long Telstra at 320. I've been looking at this all day and it's going to close near its highs.
It's making a higher low, I think, with a big reversal up day which should see some follow through tomorrow.
4.14 The fall was only 8 points by the close. Long Rmd, Roc, Tls, Tts and Vba although I sold out half of the Tts at 253 (v 252.5) as although I like the chart, I think the others will move faster. Vba was the standout, finishing at 55.5. Tcl was disappointing, I sold at an intraday low and it closed at 445.
Since I returned from a holiday in late July my aim has been to try to focus on the very best moves in the shortest time. I'm still coming to grips with ignoring stocks which are charting well in order to focus on the strongest. I think it's a lot easier than I've been making it; you don't have to be a genius to filter the top 200 for the best movers and then it's a question of scanning them for the ones which have a good structure too.
I find myself wondering lately whether a very simple strategy would be to look over the stocks at about 3.30 pm and deal in the last part of the day because that's when the moves are usually confirmed. That would be pushing the late riser concept to an extreme except that closing out trades is trickier; sometimes it's worth taking a gap move on the open which doesn't continue and other times you need to be monitoring for loss of momentum.
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