Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Roc Steady. Wed Oct 14

The overnight lead was flat but Intel's result after the bell has given the Australian market a modestly bullish lead and at 11.17 am the Xjo index has risen 18 points. Base metals were weak in the Northern Hemisphere markets but oil and gold were firmer.
Most of my longs are energy related so they're steady to stronger this morning with Cvn, Esg, Roc and Srl all up while Wsa is slightly down. I sold about half of my Wsa position at 504 (v 502.7) as I've been expecting more of a push from this.
I've put on fresh longs in Arrow Energy and Linc Energy.
Aoe was on my list yesterday and needs to push through 440 to confirm so the purchase of half my position at 436 is subject to a quick resale if the day doesn't pan out as I'm hoping.
Lnc closed a tick below the breakout level last night and I went long on the open at 176. 12.14 Wsa has restarted trading following a reserve upgrade and they've bounced up to 513. The market has also pushed through short term resistance to be up 28 points now.

12.56 Bought more Aoe at 439 (ave entry 437.5) and they're through the breakout level having been up to 441. Now I just need them to build on this momentum...

2.08 The market is up 47 points, almost 1%, and I'm disappointed because on aggregate my positions haven't really moved since the open when the market was only up 18 points. Bluescope Steel is running again while One Steel is lagging slightly but looking bullish so I'm wondering about jumping back into that. Golds are also running again and I missed the opportunity to get on either or both of Lgl and Sbm yesterday because although they gave continuation signals I thought they might be too stretched.

2.53 As was the case yesterday, there are still good buy signals and I've decided to get into Awb at 125 as it's starting to move and might have digested the stock issue from late September. Broker targets are quite bullish too. Murchison Metals, an iron ore producer, is also breaking out but I'm pretty full now. Here's the Australian Wheat Board chart.

It's more of a simple reversal pattern than the signals I usually take but it looks like a longish 3 wave correction is complete.

3.52 Decided to take the buy signal in Mmx after all, at 165.5 and 166, as it's a high momentum breakout and Rio is talking about how robust iron ore demand is, and not just from China.

Sold out of the last Wsa at 508 (v 499, the first purchase) to make room along with half of my Cvn at 59.5 (v 56.5) and Esg for square at 95. Wsa had ample chance to run today with a reserve upgrade and a rallying market to go with the breakout but has failed to get cracking.
4.13 A modest late sell off in the spi depressed the price on the match out and I was able to buy the last of my Mmx at 163.5 to take my average entry price to 165. Over my limits so I sold out of the last Cvn at 59.5 (v 56.5) and a couple of Aoe at 443 (v 437). I've now got a full book with the market at the top of a trend channel having just jumped 90 points in two days so I'll be looking for any signs of weakness to reduce my positions.

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