Friday, October 9, 2009

Leaving money on the table. Fri Oct 9

Another good lead from overnight markets and metals ran very hard. Today we're up 21 points but I'm nervous of an early Friday peak followed by a grind down. Any excuse and the market will do it.
Looking at Lgl and Ozl which are up again and especially, Vba which is now up to 53.5, I wonder whether I should have held but in the end I'd have a dozen positions. My book has got out of hand from time to time and then a couple of bad days in the market wipes out two weeks profit.
Also, Axa has done well. I've sold out over half at 462 (v 444) and sold out some Tpi at 167.5 (v 161). Cvn is back up to 56 and looks hopeful.
The market is now (11.11 am) down to a gain of 1 point from a high of up 35.

11.19 Out of the rest of the Tpi at 166. Just got a few Axa and Cvn. Pacific Brands is the best performer, I've missed the boat in the short term but might get a buying opportunity later on a good breakout.
12.35 Minara is starting to move again and I've bought some at 100.5 with the intention of buying more if the close is strong.
2.30 Sold the last third of my Axa at 467 (v 444). Having another look at Mig as it has had a lengthy sideways correction and is knocking around the top of the range again.
3.20 Just bought some Gff at 174, it looks like they'll hold the breakout. 3.22 Also realised I'd been too hasty to sell Tpi, so bought a few more at 170 for a quick trade to lessen the blow of selling out too early....
3.25 ...and just sold them out again at 172.

3.51 Axa is closing strongly and I'm scratching my head as to why I sold out quite so quickly. Here's the 60 minute chart. You can see that there hasn't even been a pullback today, just a sideways correction where no bar triggered a simple trailing stop. What I'm getting at is that while I'm trying to be quicker to smell trouble because I'm generally buying into high momentum situations, this was a situation where it should have been relatively easy to stay in. At least in Tpi, there was a sharp intraday retracement and a rational reason to get out.

4.15 Well, a fairly predictable Friday with a 16 point profit taking sell off by the end of the day. Still long Cvn, unchanged on the day, a few Gff, a few Mig where I've pre-empted the break which hasn't happened and Mre which held most of the gains to close at 100. Mig looks ok so I'll use a trailing stop with these.

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