Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Homework. Wed Oct 28

Mixed messages last night from US markets have left us with no real lead. The main story this morning has been the NAB result which was slightly better than expected. The market was initially bullish then sold off but is now firming again so it's the usual post result confusion.
I'm spending today doing something I should have done years ago which is working out how many positions I'm likely to have given the signals I look at. I always get uncomfortable when my book is too big but I've never thought to do this. It's too easy to get sucked in to specific stocks I suppose.
As for my positions, Resmed is dual listed and is being affected by Nasdaq weakness I think. It was sold down to 530 - part of it silly automatic stop losses - but I felt obliged to stop out as my trailing stop was at 542. Out for 539 (v 540) and it's back to 545 now.
I'm also out of Ost at 325 (v 329) because I could see the market ready to bounce and I'm not quite sure if I've got a good enough reason to be short this.
Lynas is the dumbest trade I've done for a long time and that's gone down through the previous major low at 49.5 to a low of 48.5. That's my cut level but it's bounced back to 49.5 so I'll play it by ear. Otherwise Fgl is a mess, back up to 555 but the more I look back at this stock, the more I can see why I normally avoid it. Far too choppy and yesterday was technically a cut for me but as the normal rules don't seem to apply in Fgl, I've left it. I'll try and finesse out on a rally.

11.54 The little rally didn't last long as the CPI figures came in slightly worse than expected and gave the market the impetus to push lower. Down 19 points now.
Out of Ewc at 49 (v 48) as I'm not sure how to approach the reversal trade. It's supposed to be high momentum and it hasn't been but admittedly it's a falling market. Food for thought at least.
1.42 The market is now down near its lows with the banks getting sold off. Sell on fact has a history with the banks so although the result was fine, Nab is down 2.6% with the rest of the banks following suit. My positions aren't doing much, Lyc still poor and Tls confirming the breakout yesterday with a 5 cent rise to 329.

4.30 Sold Lyc on the close at 48 (v 56) which was a shocker, otherwise everything else was fine. The market closed down 68 points. Still busy with some analysis/research.

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