Not bluffing. Fri Oct 2

Like a good natured teacher finally snapping, the market has followed through on its threats with a 2% fall by 11.15, matching the fall on the Dow last night.

I've stopped out of Bly for 29.5 (v 31.5), Lnc for 165 (v 174.5) and Mre for 89 (v 97.5) with some regrets that I didn't get out of Bly and Mre at the most conservative stop. I'm still long some Lyc and Vba with only Vba performing well, flat on the day. It doesn't surprise me that the market is finally having a sell off because for the last couple of weeks most of my long positions have started well then failed.

Here's the daily chart for the top 200.

Market tops tend to be slower to form than market bottoms so I expect that this wave down might be near completion and the smart move might be to sell into a rally early next week. Having said that, I can see a few opportunities on the short side now.

Here's one in Iluka.Here's another in Paladin.

1.45 The market is still down around 2% but trying to bounce a little. I'm just in Lyc and Vba and I'm waiting till late in the day before deciding on any more trades.

3.45 I'm planning to put on a couple of short positions in small size as part of a little experiment I've been thinking about for a while. I often find that the best positions can be difficult to take because I often feel that I've already missed the boat. The other issue is that when I do take such positions and they go well the next day, I try to play it by the book and run them as long as possible yet often the trade is at its best.

Anyway, here's a couple more short possibilities in Awc and Ipl.

4.13 The market has closed down 99 points. I sold out half of my Vba at 44.5 (v 43) and shorted small amounts of Awc at 174.5 and Ipl at 272.